A new university survey has shaken the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer race for 2026 and has Kennedy Ohene Agyapong as the probable leader. Conducted from August 15-31, 2025, the survey foresees that Agyapong could take between 41% to 52% of the delegate vote. Vice-President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia follows with 31–39% anticipated support.
This matters as the NPP's internal race shapes the 2028 national elections, delegate math, and which person possesses party unity and momentum.
History of the NPP Flagbearer Race
•The NPP holds its presidential primaries well in advance of the national election; the upcoming contest is for 2026, setting the party's direction for 2028.
• Kennedy Agyapong, the ex-Assin Central MP, has been a party bigwig with a loud voice and grassroot base.
• Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the incumbent Vice President, was previously the NPP's flagbearer aspirant and still wields a great deal of influence.
About the Poll
• Done by academic researchers headed by Dr. Evans Duah between August 15-31, 2025.
• Sample: ~20,356 delegates (≈10% of the total 203,562 registered NPP delegates). Observed non-response bias (~25%).
• Regional breakdowns show candidate strength variation across Ghana.
What the Poll Confirms
• Ken Agyapong is leading under different scenarios: high turnout, moderate turnout, and among undecided voters. Throughout all, he has edge.
• Dr Mahamudu Bawumia strong in the north but does not appear to match Agyapong in regions with greater delegates.
Other Candidates
• Dr Bryan Acheampong: 9–11% on a national scale. Strength concentrated in some regions (e.g., Eastern).
• Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum and Kwabena Agyei Agyepong trail further behind, with low percentage points.
Caveats Mentioned by Researchers
• Non-response rate of ~25%, so undecided or unreachable delegates can alter the result.
• Poll is suggestive, not predictive. Late breaks, campaign events, endorsements can change delegate preferences.
Expert Reactions
• Political analysts say Agyapong's advantage is significant because a large number of delegates come from the southern areas, where he is strongest.
• Some insiders caution that Bawumia's network among northern delegates and his past incumbency can allow him to bridge gaps if his campaign gains momentum. — quote from unnamed source close to NPP internal dynamics.
• Academic pollsters (led by Dr. Evans Duah) highlight structural advantages (region, equipment, network) are equally important as numerical leads.
Impact & Implications
Political & Party Dynamics
• If poll trends hold, Agyapong could be the flagbearer, possibly changing internal power structures within NPP. Southern regions may feel more represented.
• For Bawumia, bridging the gap will require more aggressive outreach and coalition building, especially with delegates and undecided regions.
For the 2028 National Election
• Candidate appeal, perceived electability, and ability to unify the party will matter. A frontrunner status gives Agyapong early momentum for fundraising, endorsements, and media narrative.
• Southern Ghana regional dominance (Greater Accra, Central, Ashanti, Volta) has a tendency to be determinative in national elections. Having a lead there gives advantage.
Societal & Media Reaction
• The grassroots supporters have already begun reacting to the poll results, with enthusiasm (Agyapong) and unity appeals (Bawumia camp).
• Media outlets (Ghanaian and international) will be subjecting more campaign tactics and delegate mobilization to scrutiny.
What's Next?
• More polls: More surveys expected; trends will be needed to determine if Agyapong's lead holds.
• Campaign events & endorsements: Who Agyapong and Bawumia get endorsements from – party seniors, regional chiefs – can shift delegate loyalty.
• Debates and public appearances: Candidates need to react to criticisms, provide proposals for burning issues (economy, youth unemployment, unity).
• NPP primaries schedule and delegate readiness: As the time draws near, registration, confirmation, and party internal regulations will become more and more vital.
How reliable are the figures?
Reasonably accurate. Sample size is huge, yet 25% non-response and undecided delegates create margins of uncertainty. Regionally biased strengths can also overstate or understate actual delegate votes.
In the 2025 college survey by Dr. Evans Duah, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has likely taken the lead in the NPP presidential primaries, garnering roughly 41–52% of the delegate votes, as opposed to Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia's 31–39%. While other aspirants lag behind, regional dynamics and undecided delegates render the race far from conclusive.