In its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday October 14, 2025 the Fund predicts the world to decelerate from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 — though upwardly adjusted modestly from its April estimate.
The IMF said the international context has been reshaped by new policy, with some of the more stringent tariff impacts softened by new trade deals and short-term bouts of early 2025. But those props—such as firms staging exports ahead of new tariffs—will begin to crumble.
Advanced economies will expand at about 1.5%, with emerging markets and developing economies just breaking the 4% mark, fueled by solid domestic demand in Asia and some segments of Latin America. Inflation is expected to continue to moderate, although still above target in the United States and low elsewhere.
The risks remain skewed towards the downside, the IMF warned, citing ongoing policy uncertainty, protectionist pressures, and potential dislocations in the supply of labor. Fiscal vulnerability and market adjustment would also undermine stability.
Policymakers have been challenged by the Fund to restore fiscal buffers, uphold central bank independence, and undertake structural reforms to reverse business sentiment and preserve medium-term momentum for growth.